Monday, September 16, 2013

Longhorn: Is it Time For a Change in Austin?

 This is going to be painful to watch. Although Mack Brown's tenure at Texas since 1998 doesn't come close to the tenure that Bobby Bowden had at Florida State, the end looks to be just as ugly. The sharks are circling in Austin and elsewhere around the state. After this season DeLoss Dodds, the Longhorns longtime Athletic Director will retire. His yet to be named replacement will not want to inherit the headache that comes with ending its relationship with an iconic coach.
 This is the situation; Texas has arguably done less with more than any other team in college football in the last few years. In the 41 games since the start of the 2010 season the Longhorns are 23-18. That doesn't sit well with Texas fans who are used to being in the national championship discussion every year.
 In 2010 Texas went 5-7. A losing season is almost unheard of in Austin but most fans and boosters were willing to concede that the cupboard runs a little bit bare on every team once in a while. That season was followed up in 2011 with a 8-5 record and in 2012 with a 9-4 record. At UNC that wouldn't cause much of a stir. Texas isn't UNC. Success at Texas means winning at a minimum ten games. Eleven is acceptable. Twelve is expected. You could probably keep your job indefinitely as the head football coach at Texas with a ten win regular season as long as one of those ten wins was against Oklahoma. Lose the Red River Rivalry and you'd better win the rest of your games. That's a high bar to clear. But that's what you sign up for when you wear the big boy pants in Austin.
 So when the Longhorns started off the 2013 season 1-2, losing to BYU and Ole Miss by a combined score of 84-44, noses began to twitch, faces began to turn red and seats began to get warm. Yes, the 'Horns beat New Mexico State 56-7 to open the season but that won't cut the mustard with a demanding fanbase. Longhorn Nation knows full well that the competition in Texas' annual spring game in April has better talent than the Aggies.
 When Brown came to Texas at the end of the 1997 season he was known as Coach February due to his ability to sign high profile recruits during National LOI Day in February each year.  Brown has largely lived up to that billing, and that's actually part of the problem. It isn't that Texas doesn't have talent. They do. In fact, they have it in droves. Texas annually produces about three hundred and fifty Division 1A football recruits. That would equate to about three Texas high school kids for every Division 1 team in the NCAA. The Longhorns get their share of this bevy of talent, too.
  In 2011 the Longhorns signed 22 recruits. Of these 22, 21 were from Texas. Eleven were rated as four star recruits and four were rated as five star recruits by the main recruiting services. Texas had the #3 ranked haul that year.
 In 2012 the 'Horns signed 28 recruits. 24 of these were Texas high school stars. Thirteen were four star rated and five were five star rated. This got the Longhorns the title of the nations #1 recruiting class.
 In 2013 Texas signed a slightly smaller class, although still impressive. Of the 15 total recruits, 13 were products of the Texas high school football factory. Nine were four star kids and one was a five star kid. As UT goes, this class was a disappointment at #23.
 So far in the 2014 class, UT has already inked verbals for 24 recruits. So far, 22 of those are from the state of Texas. Nine are currently rated with four stars. Since the season is still ongoing this could change for the better or worse. So far the class is rated overall at #3.
 So here's the question that the nation's media, the Longhorn faithful and college football fans everywhere are asking themselves; with all of those built-in recruiting advantages and the embarrassment of riches with regard to talent, why are the Longhorns 23-18 since 2010?
 Make no mistake, the Longhorns do have competition from other schools for their recruits. The rise of schools like Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU and the increased allure to some of playing in the SEC for Texas A&M have had some impact. But let's face it. Most kids don't grow up dreaming of wearing the Purple jerseys of the Horned Frogs. A few do. The majority grow up in a world where the lenses in eyeglasses see the world through one hue and one hue only - Burnt Orange. If you can't get a scholarship offer from UT then you begin to look to the Red Raiders or Aggies. That's not a universal truth but it's the case far more often than its not.
 Brown has said that all that the "Horns need to do to right the ship is to win the Big 12. That is indeed true. The likelihood of that happening is slim. In the two pole-axing's by BYU and Ole Miss, Texas' run defense was exposed. If you can't stop the run with your front seven then you have to commit an eighth defender to take up the slack. In the pass happy Big 12 that is a deadly gamble to take. Looking at the schedule as it stands now the Longhorns can probably count on wins at Ames against Iowa State and home against Kansas. Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Baylor may be too close to call. At best they will probably come out of those four games 2-2. That makes for another 5-7 season like the one in 2010. If that happens there's no question that Brown will be gone. If they could manage to finish the season on a 7-2 run it might be enough to keep the wolves away from the door for one more year, but with Dodds departure the pressure will be high to make a clean start in Austin. Brown could make it easy and just retire, but most icons never make it easy on themselves or their universities. (See Bowden and Paterno situations. Paterno not for the sexual abuse scandal but because the university tried to get rid of him at least five years before they were finally were able to)
If Brown is ousted at the end of this season, you people in Boise better open your wallets wide. The Eyes (and dollars) of Texas will most certainly be upon Chris Petersen. With almost unlimited resources and an insatiable appetite for winning, if they really want him they will get him. If Petersen isn't the apple of Texas' eye then there are also a number of other appealing options out there. James Franklin from Vanderbilt? Will Muschamp returning home? Maybe Art Briles from Baylor? If the 'Horns get really desperate just remember that Bobby Petrino is lurking out there, just waiting for the right opportunity to get back to the big time. Don't laugh. When people with money get bored on Saturday afternoons anything can happen.



Stephen Walker writes blog articles on a wide range of topics. He is a novelist and short story fiction writer who writes for the Erudite Aardvark and other online concerns. He can be reached at stephen.walker@eruditeaardvark.com.

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