Buckeyes Loss May Be Big 12's Gain

  It was pure college football melodrama. Late in the fourth quarter, the Ohio State Buckeyes were clinging to a narrow lead in a hard fought contest against a team that was considered to be a 19 point underdog. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. We’ve seen Ohio State struggle against teams that don’t have their level of talent, only to watch the Buckeyes have the ball bounce their way in the waning moments of the game to preserve the win.

 But this one didn’t follow the script. The Buckeyes lined up for a field goal that would secure the win against the unranked but tough Nittany Lions. The kick was blocked and the ball bounced into the arms of Grant Haley, who took the ball all the way to the end zone. The Penn State defense held on the final series and the mighty Buckeyes went down.

 So, who really lost? And who stands to win as a result of this? The answers may not be as easy as they seem.

OHIO STATE

Yes, they lost the game and that’s always bad. But tOSU is almost never just playing for one game. They’re playing for a playoff spot. Did this loss diminish their hopes of obtaining one of those four golden tickets? Not really. They dropped a few spots in the polls, but not far enough that a victory over Michigan at the end of the year won’t propel them right back into the picture. The Buckeyes don’t have a cakewalk for the remaining four games until they face the Team Up North but they should win them. Northwestern, Nebraska, Maryland and Michigan State stand in their way. If they lose any of those five they will likely be out of contention. Bottom line? This loss isn’t a determining factor for the Buckeyes.

THE BIG TEN

This is where the real issue lay. Now that Ohio State has lost, the playoff spot will most likely come down to the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game. It was possible that the Big 10 could’ve gotten two teams into the playoff. The loser of the OSU-Michigan game might not fall far enough to knock them out of fourth place. That’s not likely now. So the Big 10 is a virtual certainty to get one of their teams in unless something unprecedented happens. But they most likely won’t get two.

BIG TWELVE/BAYLOR/WEST VIRGINIA

College football is a zero sum game. Someone’s misery is someone else’s treasure trove. The Big 12 has been bad mouthed all season as not being worthy of consideration. Some of that talk is merited. Most of it is not. Conferences rise and fall in cycles. The Big 12 is not as powerful this year as they are in most years when considered in total. But the ACC is proving that they aren’t anywhere near as good as they were touted early in the year too. Miami in the top 10? Notre Dame ranked in the top 10? (Yes, I am aware that Notre Dame is only a stepchild of the ACC but I’m still counting them) Pac 12? Anybody remember when Stanford was in the top 10?

The truth is that you have a wobbly Clemson team that is very talented but has been living on the edge. You have a Louisville team that is no doubt talented but darn near lost to Duke. The Pac 12 has one team that has the look and feel of a playoff contender. That’s Washington.

 So why is the Big 12 getting pounded on while others have an easy go in the media? You can make a pretty good case that the SEC is the strongest conference top to bottom and that the Big 10 is next. After that it’s not so clear if you’re objective. The answer is simple. The media lack objectivity. The Big 12 is being punished because the standard bearers right now aren’t Oklahoma and Texas. They are Baylor and West Virginia. As long as the old stalwarts are in control the sports media plays along. But if you try to put the Mountaineers or to a lesser extent the Bears into the playoff, well, you’d better buckle up. It’s going to be a rough ride.

 Baylor is a known quantity. We understand they have talent. But do they have the depth to see this thing through with only 70 scholarship players? Disaster is just a turf toe away every week for the Bears.

 But hear this; West Virginia is tough. West Virginia is snarling. West Virginia means business. Take a cue from their basketball team the past few years if you want to have an understanding of what this disrespected school in this disrespected state is all about. They are a no-nonsense, up in your face aggressor that backs down from no one. They may have the best receiving corps in the country. Their offensive line is a top ten unit and the best lineman they have is out for the season. Their senior quarterback that no one wanted has quietly improved into a quality P5 leader and passer. The defense is just…..nasty. It’s a blitz early, blitz often, blitz from places you don’t think we’ll blitz from scheme.  They gamble a lot. And one of these days it may cost them a game. But it also may not. And if it doesn’t, West Virginia will be coming to a college playoff near you, whether your favorite sports commentator wants them to or not. And they probably will have the Penn State Nittany Lions to thank for it.

Rumble in the Mountains - Troubled Times for West Virginia Mountaineer Football

  In late 2007 all was right in Mountaineer land. The West Virginia Mountaineer football team was on the verge of playing in its very first BCS Championship game. A bizarre series of upsets in college football had left the highly regarded Mountaineers as the only legitimate prospect to play Ohio State for the national title.  There is little doubt in anyone’s mind that, had West Virginia played Ohio State in that game, they would have ripped the Buckeyes to shreds. OSU was a paper tiger that year and the Mountaineers, under seventh year head coach Rich Rodriguez, were the scourge of college football. With Pat White at quarterback, Steve Slaton and freshmen super-recruit Noel Devine at tailback (RichRod prefers the term “Superback” but it’s the running back with the speed to take it the distance) and fullback Owen Schmitt blocking and running as well this was one of the most talented and perhaps fastest backfields in the history of college football. Although they weren’t any great shakes as a passing team, the WVU ground game was nearly impossible to stop. Rodriguez’s read option based offense presented defenses with a serious conundrum; pack your defenders in to stop the run between the tackles and White would make you pay the moment you bit on the fake to the back. Spread your defenders out to keep White from running wild and Slaton and Devine would gash you for fifteen right up the middle. Get them in third and short and the Mountaineer big uglies would drive block while 260 pound Owen Schmitt made you regret hitting him head on.

 But, as college football fans know, they didn’t play in that game against OSU. With melodrama swirling around the program about Rodriguez flirtation with Michigan they dropped a 13-9 game to a 4-7 Pitt team that shouldn’t have been able to stay within 30 points of the Mountaineers.

Rodriguez and his entourage’s handling of the Michigan affair was an absolute clinic of how not to leave your current position for another. Rodriguez lied about his whereabouts, lied to his players, contacted West Virginia recruits from his state-issued cell phone to try and get them to follow him to Ann Arbor and, worst of all, insulted his alma mater and his home state. In California or New York that may not sound like a big deal, but in West Virginia, where state pride is taken very seriously and the WVU Mountaineers are the traveling embodiment of a state that faces continual ridicule, it stirred up a hornets nest of resentment and loathing.

 The Mountaineers bowed up their backs and against all odds, destroyed an Oklahoma team in the Fiesta Bowl that was, by many knowledgeable talking heads, the most talented team in the country. The emotional victory by West Virginia native, interim coach and all around good guy Bill Stewart propelled the university administration to make an emotional (and financial) decision to hire Stewart as the full time coach.

 After two big BCS wins, double digit wins season records and finishes in the Top 10, the Mountaineer nation had arrived. And they weren’t going to tolerate 8 or 9 wins any longer. Although many people don’t realize it, West Virginia is among the top fifteen all-time winning-est programs in the history of college football. They were finally getting the respect and recognition that they had long deserved and many felt that Stewart’s nice guy approach was robbing the team of the reputation it had built for nastiness on the field. (West Virginia also has a reputation for nastiness from its fans as well but that is a discussion for another time)

 After three seasons of sub-par performances, West Virginia Athletic Director Oliver Luck made the decision to let Stewart go. It seemed that the vast majority of the fans and booster thought that he was a wonderful man, a proud West Virginian, someone that you’d love to have as a next door neighbor or the coach of your kids soccer team or even the assistant coach but not someone that most wanted to be at the helm of the ship. He was and is to this day, wildly popular in the state but most were eager to see him go. Tragically, Bill Stewart died of a heart attack while playing in a golf event the following year.

 Here is where our story begins.

 Oliver Luck had reached back to his Texas days and hired Dana Holgorsen, a hotshot offensive coordinator with Oklahoma State who had also had stints at Houston and Texas Tech, all highly productive offenses with star quarterbacks. For the uninitiated among you, Oliver Luck is a graduate of West Virginia University and was the quarterback for the team in the early 1980’s. A Rhodes Scholar finalist, he was drafted by the Houston Oilers and served as the backup to Archie Manning. Luck went to law school at the University of Texas and served as commissioner of the World League of American Football and as president of the Houston/Harris County Sports Authority. Luck hired Holgorsen as head coach in waiting, arguably the one questionable thing he’s done in a career of high achievement. Holgorsen would serve one season as the teams offensive coordinator before taking over the head job.

 After some shenanigans that seemed to suggest that Bill Stewart night not be quite the nice guy that his image seemed to portray, Holgorsen found himself taking over as head coach immediately. Luck no doubt felt some pressure to act quickly on the Holgorsen hire. West Virginia’s arch rival Pitt was also looking to replace their departed coach in Dave Wannstadt and was looking hard at Holgorsen. (Pitt’s embarrassing coaching carousel is also a subject for another time) Holgorsen had produced prolific offense everywhere he’d been and was going to get a head coaching job somewhere. Luck pulled the trigger and signed him to a contract with an $11.6 million dollar buyout clause. Luck can be forgiven for the size and scope of this buyout. West Virginia had been involved in incidents with both RichRod and Bill Stewart over aspects of contract buyouts. With Holgorsen as an Oklahoma native with deep Texas recruiting roots, West Virginia needed to be certain that, if Holgorsen was going to be their man, he was going to be there for a while or else someone was going to pay a bundle to hire him away. If Holgorsen did well at West Virginia and an opening came about at say, Texas, he would have been on the short list of possible candidates to replace Mack Brown.

 Although the 2011 season wasn’t magical by Mountaineer standards (understand that this team has had two undefeated seasons in the past 25 years and won three BCS bowls in a six year span) they did manage to squeak out the Big East’s automatic BCS bid over Connecticut and Cincinnati. In the Orange Bowl they did what West Virginia always seems to do in BCS games; they made broadcasters and pundits look stupid, not to mention the Clemson Tigers. In 2006, West Virginia was picked to get mauled by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Nobody told the Mountaineers. They jumped out to a 28-0 lead before Georgia managed to wake up and at least make a game of it. In 2008 they obliterated the Oklahoma Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl. West Virginia was given no chance to win the game. Sooner players were seen having their pictures taken beside the Fiesta Bowl trophy in the days leading up to the game, stating that once it got back to Norman, it would be put in a case behind glass and they would never be able to get this close to it again. I wasn’t able to ask any of the Sooner players from that game if they’d made the drive to Morgantown

To visit “their” trophy.

 But now those heady days seem long past to West Virginia fans. The 2012 season saw them ranked fifth before dropping five straight games. The Tavon Austin, Geno Smith and Stedman Bailey show couldn’t put up enough points to make up for a defense that was just awful. Historically awful. The Mountaineers finished that season 7-6, getting manhandled by a Syracuse team in the lowly Pinstripe bowl who looked and acted like they actually wanted to be there.

  This season was a giant question mark for the Mountaineer faithful. How would they replace the productivity of their wide receivers? How do you replace a quarterback who starts in the NFL as a rookie for the New York Jets? How do you improve a defense that was one of the worst ever against the pass? The answers are quite simple really, even if the end result isn’t good.  Tavon Austin was a once in a generation player. If you doubt me I suggest that you go watch his three touchdown performance in the NFL a couple of weeks ago against the Colts. No one as much as laid a finger on him all day. He is hands down the fastest and quickest player in the NFL. Stedman Bailey simply caught everything that was thrown his way. You can’t replace those things. However, you do what West Virginia did. You open up playing time to true freshman if they earn it,  you bring in Juco players to try and fill holes and you encourage transfers. (encouraging transfers is tricky business but you are naïve if you think that every team in the FBS doesn’t do it) In part the strategy has worked and in part it hasn’t. West Virginia’s defense is vastly improved from the previous one. They may not always look the part but its not easy when your offense turns the ball over on your own ten yard line and then says, “go out and hold them to a field goal for us.”

 The quarterback position at West Virginia is a disaster. The guy with the knowledge of the system and the ability to read defenses is a marginal scholarship athlete at best who has a weak arm and panics in the pocket. The transfer student from Florida State with Blue and Gold blood in his veins has the heart of a lion but seems to have little grasp of the playbook other than to either throw a middle screen or toss it up for grabs to wideout Kevin White (Juco), who will become a beast with time and will play on Sunday but right now is mostly unrealized potential. The gunslinging 6’5”, 230 pound redshirt freshman with the cannon for an arm has no clue what to do with the football once its snapped to him. He has time to improve. The other two will be seniors next season. They are both as good as they will ever get, although Clint Trickett will benefit from at least knowing the system next year. If West Virginia can find another transfer or junior college quarterback that can enroll in Janiary and participate in spring football, they would be foolish not to take the chance and offer him a scholarship. Auburn did it with Cam Newton, Wisconsin did it with Russell Wilson. The fact that the job is wide open for the taking and that your last quarterback is making millions in the NFL will add considerable weight to the recruiting.

 The Mountaineer offensive line is just terrible. Trickett’s father, Rick Trickett, coached at West Virginia under Rodriguez and built one of the most effective units in the country. When Bobby Bowden (another West Virginia tie) came calling with more money, Trickett bolted for Tallahassee. His offensive line this year for head coach Jimbo Fisher (native West Virgninian) is one of the best in the country. WVU needs to hire an offensive line coach that can bring back the attitude that produced All-American talent like Jozwiak, Compton, Mozes, Paige and Stanchek. They are out there. They aren’t cheap. Maybe the university can part with a little of that new found Big Twelve TV money to pay for a coach that will make a difference. The current one isn’t. The Mountaineers need to go trolling for the best Juco talent that’s out there. Of course, so is everyone else. But the Mountaineers have a pretty good pedigree of putting offensive linemen into the NFL. They need to leverage that along with the carrot of early playing time for those who can prove that they can do the job. Blocking junior college linemen and safeties and blocking Jackson Jeffcoat are not the same thing. No matter how good an offensive line recruit is coming out of high school, he isn’t likely to be big enough, heavy enough or strong enough to start a D1 game.

 They could also potentially get that money from ridding themselves of ineffective coaches with exorbitant salaries. Special teams coach Joe DeForest (yep, the same one from the Okie State story that went nowhere) adds little to the staff and is essentially paid to be Holgorsen’s party pal. DeForest presided over the defense last season (yes, that defense). He simply needs to go and his salary needs to be divided on an inexpensive special teams coach while the rest goes to find someone who can teach twenty year olds how to block. Holgorsen will not likely be amenable to letting his running buddy go. Luck will need to be forceful. Head coaches of 4 or 5 win teams that used to be 9 and 10 win teams don’t get to be indignant and picky. Sorry, Dana.

 That brings us to Holgorsen himself. The truth is that Luck took a chance based on Holgorsen’s past performance as an offensive coordinator and so far, it’s not panning out. It may yet, though. Although his play calling is not good, Holgorsen is being forced to use what he’s got. If the offensive line can’t pass protect for a seven step drop, you can’t run plays that require a seven step drop. If you have to keep two protectors in to block in order to buy yourself enough time to execute a pass play, you can no longer employ a four wide look. He’s hindered by the lack of talent on the line in everything he does. But Dana Holforsen’s shortcomings as a coach aren’t really on questionable play calls. They are in leadership. They are in the way he conducts himself on the sideline. Right now, he is not head coach material. He may grow into the role and mature if given time.

 When the man in charge looks like he’s losing control of his composure on the sidelines, it has a detrimental effect on the players. These are young men that need to be led. Throwing play cards and destroying headsets is immature and serves only to lessen his authority over his team. Most parents want to be assured that their son will be part of a program that is headed by a mature, level headed coach. When that parent brings their child to a game at Mountaineer Field, does it look like a situation where that is the case? Not now it doesn’t. It looks like you’ve got a man in charge that isn’t in any more control of his emotions than your eighteen year old son. That has a detrimental effect on recruiting, something that West Virginia has historically done very well. In a state that ranks 41^st in population and produces only two or three FBS-level athletes each year, it is absolutely vital that West Virginia keep a sterling reputation as a place to come and play. Very few kids from Florida or New Jersey or Texas grow up wanting to wear the Blue and Gold as children.

 Dana Holgorsen can turn things around at West Virginia. He won’t be fired no matter what happens against Iowa State, no matter what some fans and boosters want. However, his leash is short and the seat of his trousers should be getting very warm right about now. If West Virginia doesn’t win eight games next season, and they probably won’t, he’ll be gone. The schedule next year is less favorable than the one this year.

 If he’s fired from his first head coaching job with a below .500 record at a school that has always been a winner, he will have to wait a long time before he gets another chance to coach at the D-1 level again.

 Should Holgorsen be fired after next season, or even in mid-season if things are going badly, Oliver Luck won’t be able to go the “aggressive young assistant coach” route again. He’ll be forced to hire a coach who has proven he could recruit and win in the past but has for some reason or another been tarnished to make him more affordable for West Virginia’s limited budget. The Mountaineers aren’t poor by NCAA standards but they also aren’t Texas or Michigan or Alabama (Sorry, West Virginia but Nick Saban isn’t coming home to coach – yet another West Virginia link)

 There are six tarnished coaches right now that would jump at the chance to come to Morgantown, and would do it on the cheap. I have listed these in order of likelihood.

1.     Rich Rodriguez – I know what you all said, Mountaineers. Never in a million years. It’s amazing how quickly a million years can go by.

2.     Terry Bowden – another West Virginia link. Bowden played at West Virginia.

3.     Tommy Bowden – Ditto Terry but without the hint of scandal. He’d like to coach again.

4.     Bobby Petrino – somebody is eventually going to do it.

5.     Mike Locksley – West Virginia is a better job than Maryland. He’d jump but he’s not well liked by those at West Virginia who write big checks.

6.     Lane Kiffin – He can recruit like nobody’s business. He may be a jerk but you already had RichRod. Could this be any worse?

Stephen Walker writes blog articles on a wide range of topics. He is a novelist and short story fiction writer who writes for the Erudite Aardvark and other online concerns. He can be reached at stephen.walker@eruditeaardvark.com.

This article is the intellectual  property of The Erudite Aardvark, which reserves all rights to the content. It may not be copied or re-transmitted in any fashion without the express, written permission of the owner.

Longhorn: Is it Time For a Change in Austin?

 This is going to be painful to watch. Although Mack Brown's tenure at Texas since 1998 doesn't come close to the tenure that Bobby Bowden had at Florida State, the end looks to be just as ugly. The sharks are circling in Austin and elsewhere around the state. After this season DeLoss Dodds, the Longhorns longtime Athletic Director will retire. His yet to be named replacement will not want to inherit the headache that comes with ending its relationship with an iconic coach.
 This is the situation; Texas has arguably done less with more than any other team in college football in the last few years. In the 41 games since the start of the 2010 season the Longhorns are 23-18. That doesn't sit well with Texas fans who are used to being in the national championship discussion every year.
 In 2010 Texas went 5-7. A losing season is almost unheard of in Austin but most fans and boosters were willing to concede that the cupboard runs a little bit bare on every team once in a while. That season was followed up in 2011 with a 8-5 record and in 2012 with a 9-4 record. At UNC that wouldn't cause much of a stir. Texas isn't UNC. Success at Texas means winning at a minimum ten games. Eleven is acceptable. Twelve is expected. You could probably keep your job indefinitely as the head football coach at Texas with a ten win regular season as long as one of those ten wins was against Oklahoma. Lose the Red River Rivalry and you'd better win the rest of your games. That's a high bar to clear. But that's what you sign up for when you wear the big boy pants in Austin.
 So when the Longhorns started off the 2013 season 1-2, losing to BYU and Ole Miss by a combined score of 84-44, noses began to twitch, faces began to turn red and seats began to get warm. Yes, the 'Horns beat New Mexico State 56-7 to open the season but that won't cut the mustard with a demanding fanbase. Longhorn Nation knows full well that the competition in Texas' annual spring game in April has better talent than the Aggies.
 When Brown came to Texas at the end of the 1997 season he was known as Coach February due to his ability to sign high profile recruits during National LOI Day in February each year.  Brown has largely lived up to that billing, and that's actually part of the problem. It isn't that Texas doesn't have talent. They do. In fact, they have it in droves. Texas annually produces about three hundred and fifty Division 1A football recruits. That would equate to about three Texas high school kids for every Division 1 team in the NCAA. The Longhorns get their share of this bevy of talent, too.
  In 2011 the Longhorns signed 22 recruits. Of these 22, 21 were from Texas. Eleven were rated as four star recruits and four were rated as five star recruits by the main recruiting services. Texas had the #3 ranked haul that year.
 In 2012 the 'Horns signed 28 recruits. 24 of these were Texas high school stars. Thirteen were four star rated and five were five star rated. This got the Longhorns the title of the nations #1 recruiting class.
 In 2013 Texas signed a slightly smaller class, although still impressive. Of the 15 total recruits, 13 were products of the Texas high school football factory. Nine were four star kids and one was a five star kid. As UT goes, this class was a disappointment at #23.
 So far in the 2014 class, UT has already inked verbals for 24 recruits. So far, 22 of those are from the state of Texas. Nine are currently rated with four stars. Since the season is still ongoing this could change for the better or worse. So far the class is rated overall at #3.
 So here's the question that the nation's media, the Longhorn faithful and college football fans everywhere are asking themselves; with all of those built-in recruiting advantages and the embarrassment of riches with regard to talent, why are the Longhorns 23-18 since 2010?
 Make no mistake, the Longhorns do have competition from other schools for their recruits. The rise of schools like Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU and the increased allure to some of playing in the SEC for Texas A&M have had some impact. But let's face it. Most kids don't grow up dreaming of wearing the Purple jerseys of the Horned Frogs. A few do. The majority grow up in a world where the lenses in eyeglasses see the world through one hue and one hue only - Burnt Orange. If you can't get a scholarship offer from UT then you begin to look to the Red Raiders or Aggies. That's not a universal truth but it's the case far more often than its not.
 Brown has said that all that the "Horns need to do to right the ship is to win the Big 12. That is indeed true. The likelihood of that happening is slim. In the two pole-axing's by BYU and Ole Miss, Texas' run defense was exposed. If you can't stop the run with your front seven then you have to commit an eighth defender to take up the slack. In the pass happy Big 12 that is a deadly gamble to take. Looking at the schedule as it stands now the Longhorns can probably count on wins at Ames against Iowa State and home against Kansas. Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Baylor may be too close to call. At best they will probably come out of those four games 2-2. That makes for another 5-7 season like the one in 2010. If that happens there's no question that Brown will be gone. If they could manage to finish the season on a 7-2 run it might be enough to keep the wolves away from the door for one more year, but with Dodds departure the pressure will be high to make a clean start in Austin. Brown could make it easy and just retire, but most icons never make it easy on themselves or their universities. (See Bowden and Paterno situations. Paterno not for the sexual abuse scandal but because the university tried to get rid of him at least five years before they were finally were able to)
If Brown is ousted at the end of this season, you people in Boise better open your wallets wide. The Eyes (and dollars) of Texas will most certainly be upon Chris Petersen. With almost unlimited resources and an insatiable appetite for winning, if they really want him they will get him. If Petersen isn't the apple of Texas' eye then there are also a number of other appealing options out there. James Franklin from Vanderbilt? Will Muschamp returning home? Maybe Art Briles from Baylor? If the 'Horns get really desperate just remember that Bobby Petrino is lurking out there, just waiting for the right opportunity to get back to the big time. Don't laugh. When people with money get bored on Saturday afternoons anything can happen.

Stephen Walker writes blog articles on a wide range of topics. He is a novelist and short story fiction writer who writes for the Erudite Aardvark and other online concerns. He can be reached at stephen.walker@eruditeaardvark.com.

This article is the intellectual  property of The Erudite Aardvark, which reserves all rights to the content. It may not be copied or re-transmitted in any fashion without the express, written permission of the owner.

The Inevitablility of College Football's Pending Upheaval

 It's now just a question of when, not if. As West Virginia University Athletic Director Oliver Luck said, "it's a fait accompli." The day is now in sight when the college football "haves" will pick up the ball and walk away from the "have nots".
 During the so-called BCS era the football factories were increasingly forced to include schools from non-BCS conferences like the Mountain West in the national championship discussion. Schools like Boise State and Utah repeatedly ruined the BCS dance by appearing, and then again by winning against teams that they should not be able to compete against.
 With the end of the Bowl Championship Series as we know it ad a true college football playoff on the horizon, a new day is dawning. Even if the college football playoff isn't fully matured yet it is still mature enough to be able to tell the massive dollars that it will generate. This time around there won't be any sharing with the have-not's of the world. It's estimated by many that ESPN will pay out at least $500 million dollars to televise the college football playoffs in their current configuration. When the playoff expands from four teams to eight teams expect that amount to double as well.
 With so much money on the line the football factories realize that they are in the drivers seat to maximize their share of the pie. In order to do this there will have to be a divorce from the have-nots. What does this entail? Well, for starters it means that college football programs that have legitimate aims to try and compete at the highest level need to sequester themselves from those that do not. I've identified 72 teams that all have a few key things in common. Although there is great disparity even among this group of 72, these are programs that have the ability maximize the value of big-time college football. What are these qualities? Name recognition, participation in a BCS conference or the demonstrated ability to compete in one had they been afforded that opportunity, merchandising & licensing appeal, stadium and facilities, fan support and quality of program. Not every school among these 72 starts out every year expecting to win the national championship. It merely aims to identify the programs that are committed to pursue big-time college football and can demonstrate that desire. By satisfying that requirement they will contribute to the highest possible quality of the product that gets placed on the field.
 The 72 teams would be divided into six divisions each consisting of twelve teams each. Those teams would play a rotating group of nine games against the other teams in their division. Additionally they would play two games against a rotating group from the other regional conferences. It will take years to rotate through but eventually every team in the big-boy group will play every other. Finally, each team will have the ability to choose one historic rivalry to preserve each year.
 You've no doubt noticed that the big-boy club is totally self-contained. The proposed schedule allows only for these teams to play other members of the Elite 72. No FCS warm-up games against Sam Houston State and no playing San Jose State and claiming that they are a Division 1 team and that your strength of schedule shouldn't suffer as a result of playing them. In order to maximize the value to television audiences this practice would have to end. The country will tune in to watch LSU play Kentucky in their opener. That game has some appeal and value. Is it a marquee matchup? No. Kentucky and LSU are miles apart as programs. However, Kentucky has enough cache, enough following and enough talent as a member of the Elite 72 that this is a real game with real risk to a major contender like LSU and a serious opportunity for Kentucky to show that it can rise up and beat one of the marquee names in the Elite 72. Conversely, no one cares about LSU opening against Troy. The fans will pack Tiger Stadium simply because they've been football starved since the previous February and are hungry to see their Bayou Bengals play.....against anyone. But can you really expect ESPN or anyone else to pay out big money to televise a game that will be over before the end of the first quarter? No. Remember, the possible $1 billion price tag we talk about earlier is just for the seven games that comprise the playoff. Additional money would be on the line to televise the games of the regular season.
 Is this a completely fair method? Of course not. There is no way to have every team play an equal schedule each year. There will be years when one of the teams in your conference that you skip is the odds-on favorite to win the conference title. That may ease your path one year and cloud it the next. Additionally, there are years when schools are just better than they are in others. Would it stink to have played a historically poor Kansas team four years ago when they were very, very good? Sure. Those things will happen regardless of what anyone tries to do.
 However, if your team doesn't win one of the six spots in the playoff that go to each regional conference champion you still might have the chance to win one of the two at-large spots that brings the field to eight.
 Here's how staggering the money could possibly get. Although it's highly unlikely that any one network could or would be able to bid on televising all of the regular season like they could the playoffs, the money spent would would still be enormous. As it stands now, college football broadcasts rake in about $1.1 billion in television revenues right now. That number could easily jump to $2 billion just to televise the much more appealing games from the Elite 72.

Regular Season Payout   ( $2 Billion)

NCAA or Governing Entity      $200,000,000
Each Elite 72 Team                   $25,000,000


Eight Team College Football Playoff


NCAA or Governing Entity      $100,000,000
Each Elite 72 Team                   $9,000,000
Teams Finishing 3-8                  $25,000,000
Runner Up                                 $40,000,000
National Champion                   $60,000,000


The eventual national champion could receive $94 million. Even the team that theoretically finishes dead last in the Elite 72 would still receive $34 million. That is roughly equal to what the highest conferences such as the Big 10 and SEC now payout.
I've listed my Elite 72 teams below along with suggested regional affiliations. I do not pretend that they are perfectly balanced.

1.California

2.Stanford

3.Arizona

4.Arizona State

5.Washington

6.Washington State

7.Oregon

8.Baylor

9.Colorado

10.Utah

11.Nebraska

12.Illinois

13.Purdue

14.Indiana

15.West Virginia

16.Oklahoma

17.Texas Tech

18.TCU

19.Oklahoma State

20.Minnesota

21.Oregon State

22.Northwestern

23.Iowa State

24.Kansas

25.Kansas State

26.UCLA

27.USC

28.Texas

29.Wisconsin

30.Michigan State

31.Michigan

32.Penn State

33.Ohio State

34.Louisville

35.Boise 

36.Cincinnati

37.Notre Dame

38.BYU

39.Connecticut

40.Boston College

41.Iowa

42.Rutgers

43.Maryland

44.LSU

45.Alabama

46.Ole Miss

47.Mississippi State

48.Auburn

49.Georgia

50.Florida

51.Arkansas

52.Missouri

53.Texas A&M

54.South Carolina

55.Tennessee

56.Vanderbilt

57.Kentucky

58.Virginia Tech

59.Virginia

60.FSU

61.Clemson

62.Duke

63.Wake Forest

64.North Carolina

65.North Carolina State

66.Pitt

67.Syracuse

68.Georgia Tech

69.Miami

70.South Florida

71.Nevada

72.Houston

Below are twelve additional teams that I believe have merit and should receive consideration. There could be a few schools that decide that they want to bow out of the Elite 72 and return to a more academic standing. Duke, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest and Stanford all could potentially fall into this category.

73.East Carolina

74.Fresno

75.Wyoming

76.New Mexico

77.Utah State

78.Colorado State

79.Memphis

80.Marshall

81.UNLV

82.Rice

83.SMU

84.UTEP

PACIFIC

Washington
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon State
Cal
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Nevada
Arizona
Arizona State
Boise

DEEP SOUTH

Miami
Florida
Florida State
South Florida
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Alabama
Auburn
South Carolina
Clemson
Mississippi
Mississippi State

MID-ATLANTIC

Penn State
West Virginia
Syracuse
Pitt
Boston College
Maryland
Rutgers
Virginia Tech
Virginia
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Connecticut

MIDWEST

Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Louisville
Duke
Wake Forest
Notre Dame
Cincinnati
Northwestern

PLAINS

Colorado
Nebraska
Utah
BYU
Missouri
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Purdue
Indiana
Illinois
Iowa
Iowa State

SOUTHWESTERN

Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Houston
LSU
Arkansas
Kansas
Kansas State

Johnny Football and the Crossroads of Amateur Athletics

 At this point it's just under three weeks until the Aggies of Texas A&M take the field to begin their 2013 season. Like many college football teams, they are unsure who will be under center when they take the field on August 31st against Rice. The difference between the Aggies and those other teams is that they never anticipated their particular brand of uncertainty. While other teams lost their signal caller to the NFL draft or to graduation, theirs is of a different sort. When freshman sensation Johnny Manziel took over last year after Ryan Tannehill left for the Miami Dolphins of the NFL, fans weren't sure what to expect. They soon found out. Manziel was nothing short of magical in leading the Aggies to a very successful 11-2 season. A&M won the Cotton Bowl with a big game versus Oklahoma and Manziel walked away with the Heisman Trophy.
 With that wonderful backdrop expectations for 2013 were sky-high in College Station. But now just a few weeks before the start of the season things have taken a dark turn. Manziel has found himself at the center of an argument that has been brewing for at least twenty-five years in amateur athletics. ESPN has reported that Manziel took money in exchange for signing helmets and other sports memorabilia. Although no one seems to have actually seen any money exchange hands, the NCAA is investigating and the Manziel family has hired an attorney to represent them in the matter.
 Did Johnny Football take money for signing the autographs? We don't know yet. The NCAA will plod along, bank accounts will be checked for withdrawals and deposits and they will eventually come to a conclusion. Texas A&M will have a choice to make. Do they play Manziel and hope that he's cleared? If they do they risk vacating their wins and leaving themselves open to further NCAA sanctions. If they don't they risk playing a season in the toughest conference in college football without their best player. They can probably beat Rice on August 31st and Sam Houston State the following week without Manziel. It's the rest of the season that's in question. On September 14th Alabama comes calling, looking for revenge from last years loss to the Aggies in Tuscaloosa. And the schedule doesn't get a whole lot easier from there. Although they don't face anyone of the caliber of 'Bama (there is no one else of the caliber of 'Bama) they do face road games against Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss and Mizzou and home games with Auburn, Mississippi State and Vandy.
 However, no matter what happens to the eligibility of Johnny Manziel or the football fortunes of the Aggie nation this year there arises a much bigger question. Is it fair for the NCAA, universities themselves and licensing entities to make money off of the name of a college athlete while they make nothing themselves?
 It's here where we have to leave the particular case of Manziel behind and focus on the larger issue. If Manziel has been found to be in violation of existing rules and it can be proven that he took money in exchange for his autograph he deserves to lose his eligibility. He would knowingly have violated existing NCAA by-laws. Fair or unfair, they were the rules that were currently in place when the events in question happened. However, whether Manziel plays what would clearly be his final season in College Station or not is immaterial. He's indicated that he isn't particularly happy there and since he was redshirted he would have satisfied the requisite three year span between high school and professional football. Whether he's ready or not both emotionally and mentally to face NFL defenses he will almost certainly declare himself eligible for the draft. So no matter what happens in this case the real impact will come from the firestorm that it's caused with regard to the amateur status of players and their ability to earn money for their efforts on behalf of the universities that they play for.
 Let's examine for a moment why the amateur status even exists in college athletics. In the early part of the twentieth century very few people were college educated. The vast majority were men. The vast majority of those men were from families who could afford to pay for them to be schooled and for room and board and books. These were mostly the elite of society, the blue bloods. College was itself a fraternity. If one played a sport and was interested in continuing to play that sport it would have been unseemly to have accepted money to play it. That would have amounted to taking a part-time job, something that the majority of society men wouldn't have wanted to appear to do. As a result, the college sports team was born. Young men could represent their school, play the sport that they loved to play and compete against other young men from nearby colleges to uphold the honor and athletic prowess of their institution. There was a stigma against professional athletics at that time. Although America loved baseball and celebrated heroes like Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby and Christy Matthewson, playing baseball professionally and riding trains around the eastern half of the country was not something that most Ivy League young men were encouraged to do. Baseball players were loud, crude, rowdy men that came largely from lower class backgrounds. In golf, Bobby Jones chose to keep his amateur status rather than sully his reputation by turning professional and playing for money.
 Over the last thirty years or so things have changed dramatically in college athletics and in America in general. There is no longer any stigma attached to professional athletics. Indeed, it's really just the opposite. Professional athletes are at least equal to, and in many cases above movie stars and TV stars in terms of popularity and marketability. There is also no stigma attached to making money from almost any source any longer. You served as a juror in a salacious, high-profile case? No one blames you for being unseemly when you sign a seven figure book deal three days after the verdict is read. Need a little free publicity? Make a sex tape and then make sure that it gets "accidentally" leaked to the media. Are you an attractive young lady who needs money to fund your college education? Hire yourself out as a companion to lonely older men. Not an escort, mind you. Just a companion. Has the money from your reality show pregnancy of eight babies run low? Make an adult movie and hawk it with appearances on the talk show circuit. The point here is really just that society doesn't look down on the ways that people decide to make money the way that it did forty years ago, much less one hundred years ago.
 So maybe it's time to re-adjust our thinking when it comes to paying college athletes. What would be wrong with providing the young men (it would only be the revenue producing sports that could do this, so right now that's football and men's basketball)? Many of those who are opposed to paying college athletes like to point out that they are getting a free education out of the deal. While that is correct we've got to realize that it's not really all that valuable to a substantial segment of those who are participating in big-time college football. The only way that free tuition, books, room and board becomes a valued commodity is if a particular kid would go to college somewhere anyway. For a lot of these young men that is simply not the case. The sole reason that many attend college is to be able to be eligible to play football. If this is the case then the free college education isn't really worth much. For the kid who grew up loving Auburn football but isn't quite good enough to play at that level, a athletic scholarship to play at Appalachian State is an excellent deal. He's not going to play professionally, so for four years he exchanges his ability to play at that level for a free education and when he enters the job market in four years he benefits because he doesn't have fifty or sixty thousand dollars in debt facing him from day one.
Imagine this scenario; the NCAA sets up five division. The Division Two and Division Three would not look much different than they do right now. The three division at the top though, would undergo some fairly dramatic changes. At the top you'd have the Football First, Football Last, Football Always, Football Factory Division. These are the seventy-five to eighty-five schools that actually make money from their football programs, play in the major conferences like the Big 10, Big XII, SEC, ACC, PAC 12 or are named Notre Dame or BYU, sell out their games, make a ripple in the TV ratings water and sell serious dollars in apparel and merchandising. There may be a few more intrepid schools such as Boise, Nevada, East Carolina or Louisiana Tech that decide to join and there may be a few schools such as Vandy or Northwestern that decide not to fish in the deepest end of the pond. The next tier on the ladder would be a true amateur college experience, much like the one that we pretend that we have now. This would enable schools that don't have the resources to compete or pay for top-level prospects to still field competitive teams comprised of kids that are legitimately interested in playing college football and earning a college degree. The third tier is more or less like the Football Championship Subdivision now.
 These schools would compete only with other schools in the Football Factory Division. They would pay players a stipend of $10,000 or $15,000 per year plus allow them to attend classes or live in the athletic dormitory and eat in the cafeteria just like they do at present. If the player chose not to attend classes and work toward a degree that would be his choice. Additionally, the player would be free to sign with an agent out of high school. That agent would be able to negotiate with the university for a percentage of the jersey sales directly attributable to him after signing his letter of intent. If you're Jadaveon Clowney and you're the #1 high school pick in America, you have one more thing to consider when signing with a team to play college football. If you're the Florida Gators or Clemson Tigers or Georgia Bulldogs you may have to sweeten the pot and give Clowney a larger share of the apparel licensing in order to lure him to your school because you know he's a heavy lean to South Carolina. The money would be invested by the agent on behalf of the player. A player like Clowney, a sure fire top ten NFL draft pick probably wouldn't be concerned by the potential loss of money over leaving the Gamecocks after his junior season. The NFL money would more than make up for it. However, if you're a three star kid who had only two or three offers out of high school who has worked hard to add weight or get faster and may get a shot at the NFL as a third or fourth round pick that jersey money might be enough to make you stay for a senior season. Is it crass commercialization of college athletics? Yes. Without a doubt. However, anyone who truly believes that college football (or basketball either) is an amateur sport is fooling themselves. The television rights to broadcast the games of just the major former BCS conferences is just north of $1 billion. That doesn't include things like re-braodcast and tier three rights.
 The landscape of college athletics is changing. The conference realignment that has caused tectonic shifts in age-old rivalries over the past few years isn't over. The current playoff system to replace the BCS will no doubt be expanded. The money is just too great for that not to be the case. Would paying the players in these high profile programs $10,000 or $15,000 take the corruption completely out of college football? No. There will always be boosters with hundred dollar handshakes and offers of under the table money. However, it might reduce it to a considerable degree. If the agents, who are now part of the problem, suddenly become part of the solution because they've now got something tangible to protect the booster problem might begin to go away. Would an agent want to risk what could amount to several hundred thousand dollars in licensing money over a few hundred dollars from a booster? Of course not. The agent would want to protect his future investment and would rightly have a high level of influence over the player. The player is getting perhaps a thousand or twelve hundred dollars per month in addition to having no living expenses so they would be less apt to risk the loss of their eligibility and their claim to their licensing fees over a few hundred dollars from a booster.
 We need to stop pretending that we're still living in 1922. There are literally billions of dollars being thrown around and the only people who don't derive any immediate benefit from it are the very young men who make the whole thing possible. Create a pay for play system that gives the players a stake in the game, separate the football factories from the other institutions who don't want be involved in the monetization of the sport, put the ball on the tee and let's get on with it. Whether Johnny Manziel ever plays another down of college football or not, we may have him to thank for being the straw catalyst that finally broke the pretend camel's back.


Stephen Walker writes blog articles on a wide range of topics. He is a novelist and short story fiction writer who writes for the Erudite Aardvark and other online concerns. He can be reached at stephen.walker@eruditeaardvark.com.

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